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PAPER TOPICS

- COMPLEX SYSTEMS AND RISK
- overviews
- self-organized criticality and risk of blackouts
- risk of cascading failure
- analyzing real blackout data
- UTILITY ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS
- synchrophasors and cutset angles for smart grid
- voltage collapse blackouts
- loading margin to voltage collapse
- closest bifurcations in voltage collapse
- oscillations
- available transfer capability
- climate
change

- POWER ELECTRONICS
- NONLINEAR DYNAMICS

overviews

Complex systems analysis of series of blackouts: cascading failure, critical points, and self-organization

I. Dobson, B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, D.E. Newman

Chaos, vol. 17, 026103, June 2007

Towards
quantifying cascading blackout risk

I. Dobson, K.R. Wierzbicki, J. Kim, H. Ren,

Bulk Power System Dynamics and Control-VII, Charleston SC USA,
August 2007

Initial
review of methods for cascading failure analysis in
electric power transmission systems

IEEE PES CAMS Task Force on Cascading Failure

IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, Pittsburgh PA
USA, July 2008

Foundations
for complex systems research in the physical sciences and
engineering

J. Guckenheimer, J. Ottino, et al.

Report from an NSF Workshop in September 2008

Critical
points and transitions in an electric power transmission model
for cascading failure blackouts

B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, I. Dobson, D.E. Newman,

Chaos, vol 12, no 4, December 2002, pp 985-994

copyright 2002 American Institute of Physics; official link

* B.A.
Carreras et al.,Chaos, 12, 985 (2002)*

Blackout
mitigation assessment in power transmission systems

B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, I. Dobson, D.E. Newman

Thirty-sixth Hawaii International Conference on System
Sciences, Hawaii, January 2003

Complex
dynamics of blackouts in power transmission systems

B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, I. Dobson, D.E. Newman

Chaos, vol 14, no 3, September 2004, pp 643-652

* copyright 2002 American Institute of Physics;
**official link**
B.A. Carreras
et al.,Chaos, 14, 643 (2004)*

The
impact of various upgrade strategies on the long-term
dynamics and robustness of the transmission grid

D.E. Newman, B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, I. Dobson

Electricity Transmission in Deregulated Markets, conference at
Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, December 2004

Risk
assessment in complex interacting infrastructure systems

D. E. Newman, B. Nkei, B. A. Carreras, I. Dobson, V. E. Lynch,
P. Gradney

Thirty-eighth Hawaii International Conference on System
Sciences, Hawaii, January 2005

Understanding
the effect of risk aversion on risk

U. Bhatt, D.E. Newman, B.A. Carreras, I. Dobson

Thirty-eighth Hawaii International Conference on System
Sciences, Hawaii, January 2005

Interdependent
risk in interacting infrastructure systems

B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman, P. Gradney, V.E. Lynch, I.
Dobson

Fortieth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,
Hawaii, January 2007

Evaluating
the effect of upgrade, control and development strategies on
robustness and failure risk of the power transmission grid

D.E. Newman, B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, I. Dobson

Forty-first Hawaii International Conference on System
Sciences, Hawaii, January 2008

Long-term
effect of the n-1 criterion on cascading line outages in an
evolving power transmission grid

H. Ren, I. Dobson, B.A. Carreras

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol 23, no 3, August 2008,
pp 1217-1225

A
simple model for the reliability of an infrastructure system
controlled by agents

B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman, I. Dobson, M. Zeidenberg

Forty-second Hawaii International Conference on System
Sciences, Hawaii, January 2009

B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman, I. Dobson, M. Zeidenberg

Chaos, vol 19, 043107, October 2009

B.A. Carreras et al.,Chaos, 19, 643 (2009)

Dynamics of an economics model for generation coupled to the OPA power transmission model

B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman, M. Zeidenberg, I. Dobson

Forty-third Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Kauai, Hawaii, January 2010

The impact of distributed generation on power transmission grid dynamics

D.E. Newman, B.A. Carreras, M. Kirchner, I. Dobson,

Forty-fourth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Kauai, Hawaii, January 2011

Exploring complex systems aspects of blackout risk and mitigation

D.E. Newman, B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, I. Dobson

IEEE Transactions on Reliability, vol 60, no 1, March 2011, pp 134-143

Determining the vulnerabilities of the power transmission system

B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman, I. Dobson

Forty-fifth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Maui, Hawaii, January 2012

Risk metrics for dynamic complex infrastructure systems such as the power transmission grid

D.E. Newman, B.A. Carreras, N.S. Degala, I. Dobson

Forty-fifth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Maui, Hawaii, January 2012

Validating OPA with WECC data

B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman, I. Dobson, N.S. Degala

Forty-sixth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Maui, Hawaii, January 2013

power system simulations and probabilistic models

Cascading
dynamics and mitigation assessment in power system
disturbances

via a hidden failure model

J. Chen, J.S. Thorp, I. Dobson

International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems,
vol 27, no 4, May 2005, pp 318-326

doi:10.1016/j.ijepes.2004.12.003

Dynamical
and probabilistic approaches to the study of blackout
vulnerability

of the power transmission grid

B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, D.E. Newman, I. Dobson

Thirty-seventh Hawaii International Conference on System
Sciences, Hawaii, January 2004

A
branching process approximation to cascading load-dependent
system failure

I. Dobson, B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman

Thirty-seventh Hawaii International Conference on System
Sciences, Hawaii, January 2004

Probabilistic
load-dependent cascading failure with limited component
interactions

I. Dobson, B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman

IEEE International Symposium on Circuits and System, Vancouver
Canada, May 2004

A
criticality approach to monitoring cascading failure risk
and failure propagation in transmission systems

I. Dobson, B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman

Electricity Transmission in Deregulated Markets,
conference at Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA,
December 2004

A
loading-dependent model of probabilistic cascading failure

I. Dobson, B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman

Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences, vol
19, no 1, Jan 2005, pp 15-32

Estimating
failure propagation in models of cascading blackouts

I. Dobson, B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, B. Nkei, D.E. Newman

Probability in the Engineering and Informational
Sciences, vol 19, no 4, October 2005, pp 475-488

(journal publication of conference paper in Probability
Methods Applied to Power Systems, Ames Iowa, 2004)

An
estimator of propagation of cascading failure

I. Dobson, K.R. Wierzbicki, B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, D.E.
Newman

Thirty-ninth Hawaii International Conference on System
Sciences, Kauai, Hawaii, January 2006

An
approach to statistical estimation of cascading failure
propagation in blackouts

K.R. Wierzbicki, I. Dobson

CRIS, Third International Conference on Critical
Infrastructures, Alexandria VA, Sept. 2006

Criticality
in a cascading failure blackout model

D.P. Nedic, I. Dobson, D.S. Kirschen, B.A. Carreras, V.E.
Lynch

International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems,
vol 28, 2006, pp 627-633

(journal publication of paper in 15th Power Systems
Computation Conference, Liege Belgium, August 2005)

doi:10.1016/j.ijepes.2006.03.006

Where
is the edge for cascading failure?: challenges and
opportunities for quantifying blackout risk

I. Dobson

IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, Tampa FL USA,
June 2007

Implications
of an inverse branching aftershock sequence model

D.L. Turcotte, S.G. Abaimov, I. Dobson, J.B. Rundle

Physical Review E, vol 79, no 1, 016101, 2009

I. Dobson

chapter for Wiley handbook of science and technology for homeland security

Wiley-Interscience, 2008

Propagation of load shed in cascading line outages simulated by OPA

J. Kim, I. Dobson

COMPENG 2010: Complexity in Engineering, Rome Italy, February 2010

Testing branching process estimators of cascading failure with data from a simulation of transmission line outages

Link above is author's preprint. The definitive version is available at www.blackwell-synergy.com

I. Dobson, J. Kim, K.R. Wierzbicki

Risk Analysis, vol 30, no 4, pp. 650-662, 2010

Approximating a loading-dependent cascading failure model with a branching process

J. Kim, I. Dobson

IEEE Transactions on Reliability, vol 59, no 4, Dec. 2010, pp 691-699

Investment planning for electric power systems under terrorist threat

N. Romero, N. Xu, L. K. Nozick, I. Dobson, D. Jones

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol 27, no 1, February 2012, pp 108-116.

Estimating propagation and distribution of load shed in simulations of cascading blackouts

J. Kim, K.R. Wierzbicki, I. Dobson, R.C. Hardiman

IEEE Systems Journal, vol 6, no 3, September 2012, pp 548-557

Cascading stall of many induction motors in a simple system

H. Wu, I. Dobson

preprint; to appear in IEEE Transactions on Power Systems

"Dual graph" and "random chemistry" methods for cascading failure analysis

P. Hines, I. Dobson, E. Cotilla-Sanchez, M. Eppstein

Forty-sixth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Maui, Hawaii, January 2013

B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman, I. Dobson, A.B. Poole

IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems I, vol 51, no 9, Sept. 2004, pp 1733-1740

Branching process models for the exponentially increasing portions of cascading failure blackouts

I. Dobson, B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman

Thirty-eighth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Hawaii, Jan. 2005

Using transmission line outage data to estimate cascading failure propagation in an electric power system

H. Ren, I. Dobson

IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems Part II, vol 55, no 9, Sept. 2008, pp 927-931

Number and propagation of line outages in cascading events in electric power transmission systems

I. Dobson, B.A. Carreras

48th Allerton Conference, UIUC, IL USA, Sept. 2010

Estimating the propagation and extent of cascading line outages from utility data with a branching process

I. Dobson

preprint; to appear in IEEE Transactions on Power Systems

I. Dobson, M. Parashar, C. Carter

best paper award, 43rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Kauai HI, Jan. 2010

A cutset area concept for phasor monitoring

I. Dobson, M. Parashar

IEEE PES General Meeting, Minneapolis July 2010

New angles for monitoring areas

I. Dobson

IREP Symposium: Bulk Power System Dynamics and Control VIII, Buzios, Brazil, August 2010

Voltages across an area of a network

I. Dobson

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems vol. 27, no. 2, May 2012, pp. 993-1002

Locating line outages in a specific area of a power system with synchrophasors

H. Sehwail, I. Dobson

North American Power Symposium, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign IL, September 2012

I. Dobson, H.-D. Chiang

Systems and Control Letters, Vol. 13, 1989, pp. 253-262

On
voltage
collapse in electric power systems

H.-D. Chiang, I. Dobson, R.J. Thomas, J.S. Thorp, L.
Fekih-Ahmed

IEEE Trans. Power Systems, Vol. 5, No. 2, May 1990, pp.
601-611

Observations on the geometry of saddle node bifurcation

and voltage collapse in electric power systems

I. Dobson

IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems, Part 1, Vol. 39, No. 3,
March 1992, pp. 240-243

Point of collapse methods applied to AC/DC power systems

C.A. Canizares, F.L. Alvarado, C.L. DeMarco, I. Dobson, W.F.
Long

IEEE Trans. Power Systems, Vol. 7., No. 2, May 1992, pp.
673-683

Voltage collapse in power systems

I. Dobson, H. Glavitsch, C.C. Liu, Y. Tamura, K. Vu

IEEE Circuits and Devices Magazine, vol. 8, no. 3, May 1992,
pp. 40-45

Voltage collapse precipitated by the immediate change in
stability

when generator reactive power limits are encountered

I. Dobson, L. Lu

IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems, Part 1, vol. 39, no. 9,
Sept. 1992, pp. 762-766

Q-V Curve interpretations of energy measures for voltage
security

T.J. Overbye, I. Dobson, C.L. DeMarco

IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 9, no. 1, Feb. 1994, pp.
331-340

Chapter 2: Basic Theoretical Concepts

I. Dobson, T. Van Cutsem, C. Vournas, C. DeMarco,

M. Venkatasubramanian, T. Overbye, C. Canizares

in
Voltage Stability Assessment: Concepts, Practices and
Tools

IEEE PES Power system stability subcommittee special
publication

IEEE product number SP101PSS, ISBN 0780378695, 2002.

and voltage collapse in electric power systems

I. Dobson, L. Lu

IEEE Trans. Automatic Control, vol 37, no. 10, October 1992, pp. 1616-1620

Sensitivity of the loading margin to voltage collapse with
respect to arbitrary parameters

S. Greene, I. Dobson, F.L. Alvarado

IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 12, no. 1, February 1997,
pp. 262-272

Contingency ranking for voltage collapse via sensitivities
from a single nose curve

S. Greene, I. Dobson, F.L. Alvarado

IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 14, no. 1, February 1999,
pp. 232-240

The
irrelevance
of electric power system dynamics for the

loading
margin
to voltage collapse and its sensitivities

I. Dobson

Nonlinear Theory and its Applications, IEICE, vol. 2, no. 3,
July 2011, pp. 263-280

New
methods for computing a closest saddle node bifurcation

and worst case load power margin for voltage collapse

I. Dobson, L. Lu

IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 8, no. 3, August 1993, pp.
905-913

Computation
of closest bifurcations in power systems

F.L. Alvarado, I. Dobson, Y. Hu

IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 9, no. 2, May 1994, pp.
918-928

Sensitivity
of Hopf bifurcations to power system parameters

I. Dobson, F.L. Alvarado, C.L. DeMarco

31st IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, Tucson AZ,
December 1992, pp. 2928-2933

Avoiding
and suppressing oscillations, final report for PSerc
project

I. Dobson, F.L. Alvarado, C.L. DeMarco, P. Sauer, S. Greene,
H. Engdahl, J. Zhang

PSerc publication 00-01, December 1999, available from
http://www.pserc.wisc.edu/

Is strong modal resonance a precursor to power system
oscillations?

I. Dobson, J. Zhang, S. Greene, H. Engdahl, P.W. Sauer

IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems, Part 1, vol. 48, no. 3,
March 2001, pp. 340-349

Strong resonance effects in normal form analysis and
subsynchronous resonance

I. Dobson

Bulk Power System Dynamics and Control V, August 26-31,
2001, Onomichi, Japan, pp. 563-574

Scaling
of normal form analysis coefficients under coordinate
change

I. Dobson, E. Barocio

IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 19, no. 3, August 2004, pp.
1438-1444

Modifying
eigenvalue interactions near weak resonance

V. Auvray, I. Dobson, L. Wehenkel

IEEE International Symposium Circuits & Systems,
Vancouver Canada, May 2004, vol. 5, pp 992-995

Perturbations
of weakly resonant power system electromechanical modes

I. Dobson, E. Barocio

IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 20, no. 1, Feb. 2005,
pp. 330-337

Counterexamples
to a method for identifying Hopf bifurcations without
eigenvalue calculation

J. Arroyo, I. Dobson

IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems-II, vol. 54, no. 5, May
2007, pp. 432-434

Sensitivity of transfer capability margins with a fast
formula

S. Greene, I. Dobson, F.L. Alvarado

IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 34-40,
February 2002

Transfer
capability calculator and tutorial web site

I. Dobson, S. Greene, R. Rajaraman, F.L. Alvarado, C.L.
DeMarco,

M. Glavic, A. DeSouza, R. Zimmerman, R.J. Thomas et al.

Electric power transfer capability: Concepts,
applications, sensitivity, uncertainty

I. Dobson, S. Greene, R. Rajaraman, C.L. DeMarco, F.L.
Alvarado,

M. Glavic, J. Zhang, R. Zimmerman, PSerc publication
01-34, November 2001

Quantifying transmission reliability margin

J. Zhang, I. Dobson, F.L. Alvarado

International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy
Systems, vol. 26, no. 9, pp. 697-702, 2004

doi:10.1016/j.ijepes.2004.05.002

M. Kezunovic, I. Dobson, Y. Dong

Balkan Power Conference, Šibenik Croatia, September 2008

Key technical challenges for the electric power industry and climate change

L.M. Beard, J.B. Cardell, I. Dobson, F. Galvan, D. Hawkins, W. Jewell, M. Kezunovic, T.J. Overbye, P.K. Sen, D.J. Tylavsky

IEEE Trans. Energy Conversion, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 465-473, June 2010

.

I. Dobson

IEE Proceedings, Part A, Vol. 134, No. 1, pp. 67-83, January 1987

Geometric
description of bridge rectifier operational modes using
regular polygons,

I. Dobson

IEE Proceedings, Part A, Vol. 134, No. 1, pp. 85-88,
January 1987

(mainly utility power electronics)

S.G. Jalali, R.H. Lasseter, I. Dobson

IEEE Trans. Power Delivery, vol. 9, no. 3, July 1994, pp.1609-1615

Damping
and resonance in a high power switching circuit

I. Dobson, S.G. Jalali, R. Rajaraman

chapter in Systems and Control Theory for Power Systems

(eds. J.H. Chow, P.V. Kokotovic, R.J. Thomas)

IMA volume 64 in mathematics and its applications,
Springer Verlag, pp. 137-156, 1995

Damping
and incremental energy in thyristor switching circuits

R. Rajaraman, I. Dobson

IEEE International Symposium on Circuits and Systems,
Seattle, Washington, May 1995, pp.~291-294

Stability of ideal thyristor and diode switching
circuits

I. Dobson

IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems, Part 1, vol. 42, no. 9,
September 1995, pp. 517-529

Switching time bifurcations in a thyristor controlled
reactor

S.G. Jalali, I. Dobson, R.H. Lasseter, G. Venkataramanan

IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems, Part 1, vol. 43, no. 3,
March 1996, pp. 209-218

Nonlinear dynamics and switching time bifurcations of a
thyristor controlled reactor circuit

R. Rajaraman, I. Dobson, S. Jalali

IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems, Part 1, vol. 43, no. 12,
December 1996, pp. 1001-1006

Stability
and nonlinear dynamics in thyristor and diode circuits

I. Dobson

Chapter 6 in Nonlinear Phenomena in Power Electronics:

Attractors, Bifurcations, Chaos, and Nonlinear Control

(eds. S. Banerjee, G.C. Verghese), ISBN 0780353838, IEEE
Press 2001

Computing the damping of subsynchronous oscillations

due to a thyristor controlled series capacitor

R. Rajaraman, I. Dobson, R.H. Lasseter, Y. Shern

IEEE Trans. Power Delivery, vol. 11, no. 2, April 1996, pp. 1120--1127

Damping
estimates of subsynchronous and power swing oscillations

in power systems with thyristor switching devices

R. Rajaraman, I. Dobson

IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol. 11, no. 4, November 1996,
pp. 1926-1930

Justification of torque per unit velocity methods of
analyzing subsynchronous resonance

and a swing mode in power systems

R. Rajaraman, I. Dobson

IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems, Part 1

vol. 45, no. 10, October 1998, pp. 1109-1113

G.A. Luckjiff, I. Dobson, D. Divan

Power Electronics Specialists Conference, Atlanta, Georgia, June 1995, pp. 444-449

Modulator
for resonant link converters

D.M. Divan, I. Dobson, G.A. Luckjiff

US patent 5,619,406, April 1997

Hexagonal sigma-delta modulation

G.A. Luckjiff, I. Dobson

IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems- Part 1, vol. 50, no. 8,
August 2003, pp. 991-1005

Hexagonal
sigma delta modulators in power electronics

G. Luckjiff, I. Dobson

IEEE Trans. Power Electronics, vol. 20, no. 5, September
2005, pp. 1075-1083

I. Dobson

PhD thesis, Cornell University, 1989. Advisor David F. Delchamps

Formation
of a fractal basin boundary in a forced oscillator

I. Dobson

IEEE Trans. Circuits and Systems, Vol. 36, No. 6, pp.
866-872, June 1989

Truncated fractal basin boundaries in the pendulum with
nonperiodic forcing

I. Dobson, D.F. Delchamps

Journal of Nonlinear Science, vol. 4, 1994, pp. 315-328

A. Mazzoleni, I. Dobson

Journal of Guidance, Control and Dynamics, vol. 18, no. 2, March-April 1995, pp. 333-339

Instability
tests, Liapunov's direct method and exact stability
boundaries for flexible satellites

A. Mazzoleni, I. Dobson

Journal of Guidance, Control and Dynamics, vol. 18, no. 3,
May-June 1995, pp. 426-432

Chaos in a spacecraft passive attitude maneuver due to
time-periodic perturbations

G. Gray, I. Dobson, D.C. Kammer

Journal of Applied Mechanics, vol. 63, no. 2, June 1996,
pp. 501-508

Heteroclinic bifurcations in rigid bodies containing
internally moving parts and a viscous damper

G. Gray, D.C. Kammer, I. Dobson, A.J. Miller

Journal of Applied Mechanics, vol. 66, no. 3, September
1999, pp. 720-728

Computing
a closest bifurcation instability in multidimensional
parameter space

I. Dobson

Journal of Nonlinear Science, vol. 3, no. 3, 1993, pp.
307-327

Distance to bifurcation in multidimensional parameter
space:

margin sensitivity and closest bifurcations

I. Dobson

chapter in Bifurcation Control, Theory and Application,
editors G. Chen, D.J. Hill, X. Yu

Lecture Notes in Control and Information Sciences, Vol.
293

ISBN 3-540-40341-8, Springer Verlag 2003

I. Dobson

International Symposium on Circuits and Systems, Singapore, June 1991, pp. 1224-1227

Mechanisms
for nonthermal effects on ionic mobility during
microwave processing of crystalline solids

J.H. Booske, R.F. Cooper, I. Dobson

Journal of Materials Research, vol. 7, no. 2, February
1992, pp. 495-501

J.G. Wohlbier, J.H. Booske, I. Dobson

IEEE Transactions on Plasma Science, vol. 30, no. 3, June 2002, pp. 1063-1075

Generation and growth rates of nonlinear distortions in a traveling wave tube

J.G. Wohlbier, I. Dobson, J.H. Booske

Physical Review E, vol. 66, article 056504, November 2002

On the physics of harmonic injection in a traveling wave tube

J.G. Wohlbier, J.H. Booske, I. Dobson

IEEE Transactions on Plasma Science, vol. 32, no. 3, June 2004, pp. 1073-1085

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last updated October 12 2012