An approximation quantifies how cascading failures propagate
A
branching process approximation to cascading load-dependent system
failure
I. Dobson, B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman
Thirty-seventh Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,
Hawaii, January 2004
This paper shows that apparently sensible mitigation methods can
lead to counterintuitive
effects when complex system dynamics are considered
Blackout
mitigation assessment in power transmission systems
B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, D.E. Newman, I. Dobson
Thirty-sixth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,
Hawaii, January 2003
Cascading
dynamics and mitigation assessment in power system disturbances
via a hidden failure model
J. Chen, J.S. Thorp, I. Dobson
International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, vol 27,
no 4, May 2005, pp. 318-326
doi:10.1016/j.ijepes.2004.12.003
The
impact of various upgrade strategies on the long-term dynamics and
robustness of the transmission grid
D.E. Newman, B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, I. Dobson
Electricity Transmission in Deregulated Markets, conference at
Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, December 2004
Evaluating
the effect of upgrade, control and development strategies on robustness
and failure risk of the power transmission grid
D.E. Newman, B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, I. Dobson
Forty-first Hawaii International Conference on System
Sciences,
Hawaii, January 2008
Dynamical
and probabilistic approaches to the study of blackout vulnerability
of the power transmission grid
B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, D.E. Newman, I. Dobson
Thirty-seventh Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,
Hawaii, January 2004
A
criticality approach to monitoring cascading failure risk and failure
propagation in transmission systems
I. Dobson, B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman
Electricity Transmission in Deregulated Markets, conference at
Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh PA, December 2004
Branching
process models for the exponentially increasing portions of cascading
failure blackouts
I. Dobson, B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman
Thirty-eighth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,
Hawaii, January 2005
Estimating
failure propagation in models of cascading blackouts
I. Dobson, B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, B. Nkei, D.E. Newman
Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences, vol
19, no 4, October 2005, pp 475-488
(journal publication of conference paper in Probability Methods Applied
to Power
Systems, Ames Iowa, 2004)
An
estimator of propagation of cascading failure
I. Dobson, K.R. Wierzbicki, B.A. Carreras, V.E. Lynch, D.E. Newman
Thirty-ninth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Kauai,
Hawaii, January 2006
An
approach to statistical estimation of cascading failure propagation in
blackouts
K.R. Wierzbicki,
I. Dobson
CRIS, Third International Conference on Critical
Infrastructures, Alexandria VA, Sept. 2006
Where
is the edge for cascading failure?: challenges and opportunities for
quantifying blackout risk
I. Dobson
IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting,
Tampa FL USA, June 2007
Towards
quantifying cascading blackout risk
I. Dobson, K.R. Wierzbicki, J. Kim, H. Ren,
Bulk Power System Dynamics and Control-VII,
Charleston SC USA, August 2007
interacting infrastructures
Risk
assessment in complex interacting infrastructure systems
D. E. Newman, B. Nkei, B. A. Carreras, I. Dobson, V. E. Lynch, P.
Gradney
Thirty-eighth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,
Hawaii, January 2005
A
simple model for the reliability of an infrastructure system controlled
by agents
B.A. Carreras, D.E. Newman, I. Dobson, M. Zeidenberg
Forty-second Hawaii International Conference on System
Sciences,
Hawaii, January 2009
Towards
quantifying cascading blackout risk
I. Dobson, K.R. Wierzbicki, J. Kim, H. Ren,
Bulk Power System Dynamics and Control-VII,
Charleston SC USA, August 2007
Why the lights went out
Jonathan Kay, National Post
How
a butterfly's
wing can bring down Goliath.
Chaos theories calculate the vulnerability
of megasystems
Keay Davidson, San Francisco Chronicle
This was a first world
blackout
Chris Suellentrop, Slate magazine
Wisconsin
company believes blackout originated in Lansing, Mich.
Associated Press, Star Tribune
David Newman appeared on NPR radio KUAC
FM, August 27
Ian Dobson appeared on ABC Nightline, August 18
Energy
scientist studies blackout triggers
Pat Daukantas, Government Computer News
Blackout
was no surprise to UAF professor
Ned Rozell, Anchorage Daily News
The
chaos behind the wall socket
Ned Rozell, Fairbanks Daily News-Miner
Getting
a grip on nation's grid grind
R. Cathey Daniels, Oak Ridger
Californians
work to predict grid-crashing
Ian Hoffman, Oakland Tribune
Elusive
force may lie at root of blackout
Richard Perez-Pena and Eric Lipton, New York Times
Set
of rules too complex to be followed properly
James Glanz and Andrew Refkin, New York Times
What’s Wrong with the Electric Grid?
Eric Lerner, Industrial Physicist
Quick
response is key in emergencies
Tom McGinty, NewsDay
L'energia
ha un punto critico
Donata Allegri, Ecplanet
The Power
Grid: Fertile Ground for Math Research
Sara Robinson, SIAM News, Volume 36, Number 8, October 2003
Black-out: cause e mezzi per prevenirli
Carlo Alberto Nucci e Alberto Borghetti, Rivista ENERGIA, n. 3, pp.
20-29, 2003
The
Power
Grid as Complex System
Sara Robinson, SIAM News, Volume 36, Number 10, December 2003
The
Unruly Power
Grid
Peter Fairley, IEEE Spectrum, August 2004
Remember
last year's big blackout? Get ready for another one
Stephen Strauss, The Globe and Mail, August 14, 2004
(1) Instead of looking at the details of particular blackouts, study the statistics, dynamics and risk of series of blackouts with approximate global models.
(2) 15 years of NERC blackout data yields a probability distribution of blackout sizes with a power tail. Thus large blackouts are much more likely than expected and, when costs are considered, their risk is comparable to the risk of small blackouts. The data also suggests North American grid operation near a critical point.
(3) Imagine increasing power system system load from zero (independent failures and negligible chance of large blackout) to emergency loading of all components (certain cascading failure). We think there is a critical loading (phase transition) in between these extremes at which there is a sharply increased chance of cascading failure. Our models show power tails at this critical point. The critical loading is an operating limit related to cascading failure risk. We are developing ways of processing real or simulated data to quantify how close this critical loading is.
(4) Load growth at 2% per year reduces power system margins of operation whereas the engineering responses to blackouts (caused by small margins) increase margins. These opposing forces could dynamically self-organize the system to the critical point. Mitigation of blackout risk should take care to account for counter-intuitive effects in complex self-organized critical systems. For example, suppressing small blackouts could lead the system to be operated closer to the edge and ultimately increase the risk of large blackouts.
FOR A COMPLETE LIST OF PAPERS SEE
Ian Dobson
home page
THIS RESEARCH WAS DONE BY CLOSE
COLLABORATION BETWEEN
Ian
Dobson at the UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON
Benjamin
Carreras and Vickie Lynch at OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY
David Newman at UNIVERSITY
OF ALASKA-FAIRBANKS
James Thorp and
Jie
Chen at VIRGINIA TECH and CORNELL UNIVERSITY
FUNDING FOR THIS RESEARCH BY CERTS/ DOE, NSF, AND
PSerc
AS DETAILED BELOW
IS GRATEFULLY ACKNOWLEDGED
The work from 2001 to 2004 was coordinated by the
Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions and
funded in part by the Assistant Secretary for Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Office of Power Technologies,
Transmission Reliability Program of the U.S. Department of Energy
under contract 9908935 and Interagency Agreement
DE-A1099EE35075 with the National Science Foundation.
The work was funded in part by
National Science Foundation
grants ECS-0214369 and ECS-0216053.
The work from 2005 was supported in part by the
Power Systems Engineering Research Center PSerc, an NSF I/UCRC.
Part of this research has been carried out at Oak Ridge National
Laboratory, managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the U.S. Department of
Energy under contract number DE-AC05-00OR22725.